3.1   Awareness: change happens!

Economic realities have changed in the past few decades. Lifetime job security no longer exists.

Many if not most workers can expect to change jobs every three to five years and to make major career shifts three to five times in their lifetimes. Workers across the globe are having to reinvent themselves regularly to maintain their livelihoods.

Change happens. Social, political, economic, technological, and environmental disasters drive change. 

New Realities

The role of education in the pursuit of employment is a new reality. Good paying jobs require more education and a well refined skill set than they did in years past. Many jobs that previously required a high school education now require a two or a four year degree or even a master's degree. Indeed, when President Obama gave his first speech to Congress, he said that education and training after high school is no longer desirable. It is necessary. The reality is that career success requires lifelong learning. You can not be successful if you do not remain current in your field and ready to re-train for the emerging jobs that replace old fields of employment.  A lot of jobs that exist today did not even exist 10 years ago... data analytics for example...

Many people do not want to retire or simply cannot afford to retire. They work longer or find a new job for their retirement years. Economists had predicted that there would be tremendous labor shortages when the baby-boom generation started retiring, and that their retirements would create endless opportunities.  Although the pandemic pushed many people into retirement and set up significant element of current labor shortages - many people will have to work long past 65 to cover expenses.  

The reason for dramatic change in education and retirement is that now, more than ever, you are on your own with your career. There was a time when workers could count on their employers to provide security, healthcare benefits, education reimbursement, and retirement benefits. Those days are gone. 

It used to be the norm that employers would provide defined benefit packages. That meant you knew exactly what you would get and that the employer would keep paying for those benefits, even if the costs went up. Now most employers offer defined contributions. In other words, they will put a certain amount of money into benefits, but when costs go up, you're on your own.

With change happening rapidly and relentlessly, the new reality is that you have to be prepared to reinvent yourself and cover your own back with a continuously updated career plan

The pace of change and disruption is accelerating and it comes in many forms: technological, social, political and economic. You could show up one day at the job you thought was stable and secure, only to find out that you've been laid off. Your job may not exist tomorrow. 

The reality is that you will need to re-tool and reinvent yourself more than just once over the course of your career. You have to be ready when change happens, and you need to maintain awareness to know when it's coming. You will need lifelong education, training, and retooling.  And you will need to protect your income with at least 1 year's salary incase you lose your job. 

Watch job listings in your field to see what current employers are looking for, what companies are hiring and what industries are growing. 

Trends

Work is a moving target due to constant disruption. In the last two plus decades millions of jobs have been created and tens of thousands of workers have been left out into the cold. Disruptors can be described as trends that had a significant impact the labor market.

Economic disrupters emerge constantly.
  • Globalization
  • Buyouts
  • Downsizing
  • Restructuring
  • Mergers
  • Outsourcing
  • Right sizing
  • Off shoring
  • Disruptive technologies
  • Meltdowns
  • Recession 
  • Supply chain disruptions
Political disrupters happen without warning. 
  • Tariffs
  • Political Instability
  • Terrorist attacks
  • Inflation
  • Global Warming
  • Wars
  • Immigration Policy
  • Pandemics 
The lists are long and will change constantly in your lifetime.  

Staying aware of what is happening in the world is essential to your career health.  What is happening on the top of your news feed matters.  The demand for labor is driven by the change you see there. 

A shift in political priorities can create entire industries and demand for labor. Follow the money!
  • Trump's second term Tariff Policies
  • Biden's CHIP and science legislation, covid stimulus plans, infrastructure spending, climate change legislation, healthcare spending, and student debt relief created growth in related areas. 
  • Newsom's 2035 deadline ban on the sale of gas powered vehicles.  
  • Obama's healthcare coverage for all created "Obamacare" and his energy policy shifted the focus from fossil fuels to alternative energy.  
The most extreme example, the pandemic era shutdown, altered employment market across industries and across the globe. 
  • Tech jobs exploded as companies binge hired to fill the technology demand as the world was forced to figure out how to shop, work, play and function during the pandemic. 
  • The medical field raced to hire and retain RNs, MDs, PAs, NPs in order to care for covid patients... flying blind much of the time. 
  • Mental health providers - Psychiatrists, psychologists, counselors were needed to help the young, old, and everyone in between trying to cope.  
  • Biotech Innovators delivered rapid deployment of new medical technologies for covid treatment demonstrating the value of being ready with talent all along the continuum - research, development, production, public relations, distribution and media.  
  • Exercise became a recognized  critical factor in health and wellness increasing the demand for exercise equipment and online trainers.
  • The post-pandemic explosion in demand for travel and leisure - a huge part of the recovery economy as services and venues reopened.  
Follow the money!

Education investments yield jobs for teachers, money for research, and opportunities for workers to upgrade their skills for a 21st Century economy. Education delivers workers for the future as it evolves. With a better educated American workforce, employers are less likely to ship high tech jobs overseas.  Same with automation spending for US manufacturing.  Increased spending on US based chip fabrication operation both protects the domestic supply of chips and increases the number of high paying jobs. 

Sustainable energy policy that addresses environmental degradation and global warming creates high paying jobs in science and technology in every imaginable category - electric vehicles, self-driving cars and trucks, service, transportation, manufacturing, engineering, IT,  finance - in government, industry and consulting.

Trade policies, if done right, reduce dependence on unreliable supply chains and expand operations in the US to counter the dependency problem. 
The world-of-work changes in response to global events events and crises and ripple across the US and abroad. 

  • The coronavirus pandemic severely impacted the airline, transportation, hospitality, entertainment industries.  But it drove research and development of antidotes and immunization as well as demand for respiratory equipment and protective equipment for medical professionals.  
  • When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, the economic impact was felt throughout the country. Building supplies became more expensive in Seattle. Home insurance rates went up in Sacramento. Labor costs went up in South Dakota. Even if there had not been as much devastation, gasoline prices everywhere would still have been impacted by the closing of multiple oil refineries. 
  • Oil prices spiked up more than 100% in 2008 resulting in upheaval in many industries. There were good and bad repercussions. People thought harder about their automobile choices and where they live. They thought more about fuel economy in both decisions.  Manufacturers realized that if they manufacture in China, they might lose all of the savings gained from a cheaper labor market by incurring heavy transportation costs to get their goods to market. Cheap oil allowed for inexpensive transport of goods across the globe. But once the cost of shipping a 40-foot container to the US jumped from $3000 earlier in the decade, to $8000 in 2008 things changed. And then in 2009, oil prices dropped back down.

Things happen everyday. Someone introduces a new product.  Russia declares war on Ukraine. The Fed raises interest rates. Fires, floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, riots, volcanic eruptions, ozone layer depletion, icecaps melt, sea-level rise...  A computer battery catches on fire. Driverless cars and trucks ...  Zelle .... Zoom!  Bam! Just like that everything changes! 

Your job is to analyze the information coming at you and figure out what it means. It can be good news or it can be bad news. Your task is to maintain awareness and to figure out what might happen next and where opportunity will emerge. When things happen, your task is to pay attention and to connect the dots.